2024 Recession Prediction. We have argued that the 10y3m bond spread is a pretty good predictor (based on the auroc criterion) for the onset of a recession within a year and that including three alternative indicators does not significantly improve the prediction performance. A $1.1 trillion investment chief lists 3 reasons why a recession will likely hit in 2024 — and breaks down 12 smart investments to hedge against the coming pain.

Household debt has increased, weakening the consumer balance sheet. Despite improvements in several key measures, a heightened recession risk persists.